The Ten-Day Coronavirus Forecast

Ben Phillips, Melissa Makin, Uli Felzmann, Ian Marschner

Motivated by genuine concern that many countries were being caught flat-footed by the coronavirus pandemic, we built a shiny app that, for every country, reports estimated case detection and growth rates, and which provides a ten-day projection of active case numbers. The idea was to move us past the paralysis of daily shock and towards important action, but the site also gives us feedback on how our actions are working. The app uses a combination of methods ranging from simple heuristics to sophisticated deconvolution algorithms. State-level reporting is also available for some countries. The data are updated daily, and come from datasets collated by teams at John Hopkins University and Panjab University.

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